IMPI Projects 5.5% Growth as Tax Reforms, Stability Boost Economy
By Alabidun Shuaib AbdulRahman
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by at least 5.5 per cent in 2026, attributing the outlook to the implementation of new tax laws, improved macroeconomic stability and sustained economic reforms by the Federal Government.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, the think tank said 2026 could be Nigeria’s “boom year,” noting that recent economic indicators point to stronger growth prospects.
IMPI said the projection was based on the background to current economic developments and the reform philosophy adopted by the present administration.
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“For us, understanding the background to the current developments and the philosophical underpinning of the economy, we submit that the year 2026 would be Nigeria’s boom year yet,” the statement read.
The group said the economy had been well managed since the reforms began in 2023, despite the initial difficulties that accompanied their introduction.
“As now attested to by global and domestic economic players, the Nigerian economy has been a well-managed affair since the reforms kick-started in 2023. We commend the Federal Government for staying the course despite the initial economic headwinds,” it added.
According to IMPI, the tax reforms which took effect on January 1, 2026, are expected to significantly improve tax mobilisation and strengthen federation revenue.
It said revenue growth would be driven by the phased implementation of the reforms, stricter compliance enforcement, expanded deployment of digital revenue systems and improved remittance discipline across revenue-generating agencies.
The think tank also said the reforms would reshape operations in the manufacturing sector, creating a more coordinated and incentive-driven fiscal environment.
“At the centre of the reforms are the newly introduced Economic Development Tax Incentives targeting priority sectors such as manufacturing,” IMPI said.
Under the scheme, eligible firms can obtain an Economic Development Incentive Certificate, which offers a five per cent annual tax credit on qualifying capital expenditure for up to five years, with longer incentive periods for companies that reinvest profits.
Some manufacturing-related transactions are also exempt from stamp duties.
IMPI further identified rising capital acquisition by private sector operators as a key indicator of an expanding economy.
“A major indicator of an expanding economy is the increasing capital acquisition by private sector operators. Nigerian companies, particularly in the oil, gas, telecoms, banking, industrial goods and agricultural sectors, are actively acquiring property, plant and equipment to expand operations and strengthen market positions,” it stated.
The group cited major transactions in 2025, including MTN Nigeria Communications Plc’s N539.6bn capital acquisition, Presco Plc’s 10,000-hectare plantation purchase in Cross River State, and Ellah Lakes Plc’s acquisition of over 11,700 hectares across four states.
It said the investments were aimed at boosting capacity, meeting consumer demand and reducing reliance on imports, with positive implications for local production.
IMPI also noted improvements in Nigeria’s foreign exchange market, saying the country climbed 15 places to fourth in Africa for foreign exchange accessibility in the Absa Africa Financial Markets Index 2025.
According to the think tank, improved FX accessibility is critical to the ease of doing business, especially for foreign investors, and reflects the impact of foreign exchange reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
On capital flows, IMPI said foreign direct investment rose to $720m in the third quarter of 2025, while portfolio investment reached $2.51bn, indicating stronger non-resident participation in domestic debt and equity markets.
The group expressed optimism that foreign investment would increase further in 2026, supported by better access to foreign exchange.
IMPI also projected continued macroeconomic stability, which it said would support higher manufacturing output and overall economic growth.
“Macroeconomic stability is the cornerstone of any successful effort to increase private sector development and economic growth,” the statement added, noting that growth, investment and productivity tend to rise when key economic fundamentals remain in balance.
