Autonomous FX inflows hit $70.54bn, show reduced oil dependence — TSF
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Autonomous FX inflows hit $70.54bn, show reduced oil dependence — TSF
By Alabidun Shuaib AbdulRahman
The Tinubu Stakeholders Forum, TSF has said the rise in autonomous foreign exchange, FX inflows to $70.54bn in 2025 shows that Nigeria is gradually reducing its dependence on crude oil earnings, government borrowing and Central Bank interventions to meet its foreign exchange needs.
The forum said the development was also evidence that exporters, investors and private businesses were playing a growing role in supplying foreign exchange to the economy.
The Chairman and Secretary of TSF, Ahmad Sajoh and Danjuma Sada, respectively, said this in a statement on the latest foreign exchange figures.
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According to the group, autonomous FX inflows rose by 25.12 per cent from $56.38bn in 2024 and accounted for 64.21 per cent of the total $109.86bn inflows recorded in 2025.
It attributed the increase largely to non-oil export receipts, capital importation and over-the-counter market transactions.
The forum said the figures validated the foreign exchange reforms introduced by the President Bola Tinubu administration and implemented by the Central Bank of Nigeria under its Governor, Olayemi Cardoso.
It listed the reforms to include the consolidation of the foreign exchange market, adoption of the willing-buyer, willing-seller framework, clearance of the verified $7bn FX backlog, introduction of the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System and launch of the Nigerian FX Code.
According to the group, the measures have helped strengthen transparency and ethical conduct while boosting confidence in the foreign exchange market.
TSF also said tighter supervision of Bureau de Change operations and stronger enforcement of the repatriation of oil and non-oil export proceeds had contributed to improved liquidity and reduced market distortions.
The forum said the measures had encouraged exporters and investors to channel more foreign exchange through the formal market.
It noted that aggregate foreign exchange inflows increased by 13.81 per cent to $109.86bn in 2025, while net inflows also rose during the period.
However, inflows through the CBN declined by 2.08 per cent to $39.32bn, largely due to lower receipts from government debt and foreign exchange swaps, the group stated.
TSF described the development as significant, arguing that Nigeria’s foreign exchange position was increasingly being supported by exports, investment and private-sector activity rather than external borrowing and temporary financial arrangements.
“The increase in autonomous inflows is a strong indication that Nigeria is beginning to earn more foreign exchange from non-oil exports, investment and private enterprise.
“This is the more sustainable pathway to economic stability because it broadens Nigeria’s sources of foreign exchange and reduces excessive dependence on volatile crude oil earnings, government borrowing and repeated Central Bank interventions,” the group said.
The stakeholders added that stronger autonomous inflows would improve FX liquidity for manufacturers and importers while enhancing access to foreign exchange for machinery and raw materials.
It said sustained growth in non-oil export earnings and capital inflows would also encourage exporters, ease pressure on the naira, strengthen external reserves and boost investor confidence.
TSF, however, acknowledged that aggregate FX outflows increased to $49.05bn in 2025, partly due to higher transactions through autonomous channels and increased foreign currency obligations by businesses and investors.
The forum urged the Federal Government to ensure that the growth in foreign exchange inflows was sustained by expanding non-oil exports and domestic production.
It called for stronger incentives for exporters, removal of trade and logistics bottlenecks, increased local value addition and full repatriation of export proceeds through the formal market.
The group maintained that the growing contribution of autonomous foreign exchange sources showed that the Tinubu administration was gradually moving Nigeria away from a fragmented and intervention-dependent FX system towards a more transparent and market-driven framework.
It added that such a framework would be critical to attracting investment, supporting exports, improving liquidity and strengthening Nigeria’s external position.
